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  • Martha Holcombe
  • noahphotobooth
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  • #56

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Created Feb 12, 2025 by Martha Holcombe@marthaholcombeMaintainer

Wall Street Shows Its 'bouncebackability': McGeever


By Jamie McGeever

ORLANDO, Florida, Feb 5 (Reuters) - "Bouncebackability."

This Britishism is normally related to cliche-prone soccer managers trumpeting their teams' ability to respond to beat. It's not likely to discover its way across the pond into the Wall Street crowd's lexicon, however it perfectly summarizes the U.S. stock exchange's durability to all the setbacks, shocks and everything else that's been thrown at it recently.

And there have actually been a lot: U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff flip-flops, stretched appraisals, extreme concentration in Big Tech and the DeepSeek-led chaos that just recently called into question America's "exceptionalism" in the international AI arms race.

Any one of those concerns still has the prospective to snowball, causing an avalanche of selling that could press U.S. equities into a correction or even bear-market territory.

But Wall Street has actually become incredibly resilient since the 2022 rout, specifically in the last 6 months.

Just take a look at the artificial intelligence-fueled chaos on Jan. 27, spurred by Chinese startup DeepSeek's revelation that it had actually developed a large language design that might attain comparable or better outcomes than U.S.-developed LLMs at a fraction of the cost. By lots of measures, the marketplace relocation was seismic.

Nvidia shares fell 17%, slicing nearly $600 billion off the firm's market cap, the greatest one-day loss for any company ever. The worth of the wider U.S. stock market fell by around $1 trillion.

Drilling deeper, experts at JPMorgan discovered that the thrashing in "long momentum" - basically buying stocks that have been carrying out well recently, such as tech and AI shares - was a near "7 sigma" move, thatswhathappened.wiki or seven times the standard deviation. It was the third-largest fall in 40 years for this trading method.

But this epic move didn't crash the marketplace. Rotation into other sectors sped up, and around 70% of S&P 500-listed stocks ended the day higher, meaning the wider index fell only 1.45%. And purchasers of tech stocks quickly returned.

U.S. equity funds brought in almost $24 billion of inflows last week, technology fund inflows hit a 16-week high, and momentum funds brought in favorable circulations for a fifth-consecutive week, according to EPFR, the fund streams tracking company.

"Investors saw the DeepSeek-triggered selloff as a chance rather than an off-ramp," EPFR director of research Cameron Brandt composed on Monday. "Fund flows ... recommend that a number of those financiers kept faith with their previous assumptions about AI."

PANIC MODE?

Remember "yenmageddon," the yen bring trade volatility of last August? The yen's sudden bounce from a 33-year low against the dollar triggered worries that financiers would be required to sell possessions in other markets and countries to cover losses in their huge yen-funded bring trades.

The yen's rally was extreme, on par with past monetary crises, and the Nikkei's 12% fall on Aug. 5 was the biggest one-day drop considering that October 1987 and the second-largest on record.

The panic, if it can be called that, spread. The S&P 500 lost 8% in two days. But it vanished rapidly. The S&P 500 recouped its losses within two weeks, and the Nikkei did similarly within a month.

So Wall Street has actually passed two big tests in the last six months, a period that consisted of the U.S. presidential election and Trump's go back to the White House.

What explains the resilience? There's no one obvious response. Investors are broadly bullish about Trump's economic agenda, the Fed still seems to be in alleviating mode (for now), the AI craze and U.S. exceptionalism narratives are still in play, and liquidity is plentiful.

Perhaps one essential driver is a well-worn one: the Fed put. Investors - much of whom have actually a good piece of their working lives in the period of extraordinarily loose financial policy - may still feel that, if it truly comes down to it, the Fed will have their backs.

There will be more pullbacks, and dangers of a more prolonged decline do seem to be growing. But for now, the rebounds keep coming. That's bouncebackability.

(The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a writer for Reuters.)

(By Jamie McGeever; Editing by Rod Nickel)

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