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  • Martha Holcombe
  • noahphotobooth
  • Issues
  • #12

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Created Feb 10, 2025 by Martha Holcombe@marthaholcombeMaintainer

MORNING BID AMERICAS-Cloudy Amazon, Payrolls and A Flatter Curve


A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan Another projection miss out on from a U.S. megacap combines with caution ahead of January's employment report to keep a cover on stocks into Friday's open - with buoyant long-dated Treasuries squashing the yield curve to its flattest for the year.

Just like Microsoft and Alphabet over the previous couple of weeks, trademarketclassifieds.com Amazon dissatisfied Wall Street late Thursday as concern about cloud computing splashed earnings and earnings projections and sent its stock down 4% over night.

The most recent underwhelming outlook from the "Magnificent 7" top U.S. tech firms check an otherwise upbeat S&P 500, with concerns about heavy invests in artificial intelligence ignited again by the advancement of China's inexpensive DeepSeek model.

The DeepSeek buzz, by contrast, continues to fire up Chinese stocks. They added another 1%-plus earlier on Friday regardless of ongoing issues about a mounting Sino-U.S. trade war and Monday's deadline for Beijing's retaliatory tariffs.

But the day's macro events will likely take precedence, with the release of the January U.S. work report and long-lasting modifications of past task production.

Job growth likely slowed to 170,000 in January from simply over quarter of million the previous month, partly restrained by wild fires in California and winter across much of the country.

Those distortions include a further complication to the readout, which will include annual benchmark modifications, new population weights and updates to the seasonal adjustments.

The week's sweep of other labor market reports, however, do indicate some cooling of conditions - with task openings falling, layoffs rising and weekly out of work claims ticking greater.

With the Federal Reserve already trying to parse the impact of President Donald Trump's new financial policies, payroll distortions just cloud the picture even further.

And as Fed authorities insist they can wait and see for a bit, Fed futures remain trained on 2 more rates of interest cuts this year - resuming about midyear.

The Treasury market is more urged though - sustaining the early week's sharp drop in 10-year yields into today's jobs report and seeing the 2-to-10 year yield curve compress to the flattest it's remained in 6 weeks.

Helping the long end today has been reassuring signals from the Treasury's quarterly refunding report that a "terming out" of financial obligation auctions to longer maturities is not yet in the works, as many had actually feared.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has also firmly insisted the new federal government's focus would be on getting long-term rates down rather than pressing the Fed to reduce too soon.

Reuters analysis reveals Trump has actually placed holds on tens of billions of dollars in congressionally-approved spending for jobs throughout the U.S. that range from Iowa soybean farmers embracing greener practices to a Virginia railway expansion.

Bessent likewise doubled down on his view the administration wishes to retain a "strong dollar" policy. But he colored that with a sideswipe. "What we wear ´ t want is other countries to compromise their currencies, to control their trade."

But with the Fed on hold, main banks around the globe continued relieving rate of interest apace this week - partially on issues a trade tariff war will compromise their economies.

With a sharp cut in its UK growth projection, the Bank of England cut its policy rate by a quarter point on Thursday - with 2 of its policymakers voting for a bigger half point reduction. Sterling weakened initially, but has steadied since.

Mexico's main bank also cut its interest rate by 50 basis points on Thursday - saying it might cut by a comparable magnitude in the future as inflation cools and after the economy contracted slightly late last year.

The European Reserve bank, trade-britanica.trade meantime, is anticipated to launch its upgraded quote of what it views as a "neutral" rate of interest in the future Friday.

That's essential as it notifies the ECB dispute about whether it needs to cut rates listed below what thinks about neutral to restore the flagging euro zone economy. It's currently seen around 2% - 75bps listed below the standing policy rate.

In thrall to the payrolls release, the dollar index was consistent on Friday. Dollar/yen briefly notched a brand-new low for the year, nevertheless, as Bank of Japan tightening speculation simmers.

In Europe, stocks stalled near record highs as the heavy profits season there .

Banks there have actually a been a standout winner today and again on Friday. Danske Bank, Denmark's biggest lending institution, was up 7.1% after it published record yearly revenues and introduce a new share buyback program.

Key developments that should provide more instructions to U.S. markets later Friday: hikvisiondb.webcam * U.S. January employment report, University of Michigan February customer survey, December customer credit; Canada Jan work report; Mexico Jan inflation * European Reserve bank updates its estimate of "R *" neutral interest rate * Federal Reserve Board Governors Michelle Bowman and Adriana Kugler speak; Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill speaks * U.S. corporate profits: Cboe Global Markets, Fortive, Kimco Realty * Japan Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba sees United States

(By Mike Dolan, modifying by XXXX mike.dolan@thomsonreuters.com)

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