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  • Benjamin Finney
  • thailandproperty
  • Issues
  • #8

Closed
Open
Created Jun 14, 2025 by Benjamin Finney@benjaminfinneyMaintainer

By not Stopping the Boats, pM is Signing his Political Death Warrant


Let's presume Sir Keir Starmer desires to win the next election. Let's likewise presume he has no desire to be replaced as Prime Minister in the next year or two by Wes Streeting or Angela Rayner or anybody else.

He's a political leader, after all, and politicians relish power - Starmer more than a lot of, I would think. I also recommend that he's at least averagely smart, and need to be able to weigh up the chances of any policy succeeding.

After the struggles, compromises and humiliations associated with accomplishing high workplace, Starmer has no objective of tossing everything away. Why, then, does he reveal every indication of doing so?

On the single problem that might matter most to a bulk of voters, he is hurtling towards certain disaster, while rejecting himself any prospect of an escape path. I imply the boats stumbling upon the Channel.

Numbers of migrants doing the 21-mile journey are up by 42 per cent on the very same period last year. An analysis by The Times, utilizing similar modelling as Border Force, forecasts that 50,000 individuals will cross the Channel in small boats in 2025. That would be an - and a stonking ordeal for Sir Keir.

Peering into his mind, I reckon there are two primary possible descriptions for his behaviour. One is that he is deluding himself. He really thinks numbers will come down once the measures he has taken start to work.

If Starmer still believes that his policies - tossing numerous millions at the French authorities, enhancing intelligence and utilizing improved police powers - will lower the numbers, that actually is the accomplishment of hope over experience. The other possibility is that he is currently beginning poorly to understand that his stratagems won't bear much, if any, fruit. So he and the Government have actually decided to pull the wool over our eyes. A fatal approach.

There have actually been 2 such examples in recent days. Having said in an online post on Monday that he felt 'upset' about the numbers crossing the Channel (how does he think the rest of us feel !?) the PM made a slippery claim.

Sir Keir Starmer now has nothing powerful in his locker, Stephen Glover composes

Only 2,240 small-boat migrants were sent out home in the 12 months to March, 3 per cent fewer than in the previous year

He boasted that 'almost 30,000 people' had actually been gotten rid of from the UK by this Government. Sounds great. But in truth this figure describes all types of migrants who have no right to be in our nation. Only 2,240 small-boat migrants were sent home in the 12 months to March, 3 percent fewer than in the previous year.

A lie? Good God no! We mustn't implicate Labour prime ministers, far less Sir Keir Starmer KCB, PC, KC, MP, of informing purposeful fibs. Shall we go for an analytical sleight of hand?

The other circumstances of the Government not being completely directly was the Office's claim earlier this week that there have been more migrants this year due to the fact that of balmy weather. These are called 'red days', when the sea is calm.

But an analysis by my coworker David Barrett in yesterday's Mail shows that in temperate May in 2015 there were 21 'red days' however just 2,765 arrivals, about 1,000 fewer than last month. In mild June 2024 there were 20 'red days', though only 3,007 migrants were tape-recorded crossing the Channel.

The most probable explanation is that last May and June the Government's strategy to send unlawful migrants to Rwanda had lastly cleared consistent judicial obstruction. Some, a minimum of, were hindered from crossing the Channel for fear of being loaded off to the main African country.

The Rwanda plan was far from ideal - it was pricey, and accountable to legal challenge since the country has an authoritarian federal government - however a minimum of it had some prospect of discouraging migrants. The inbound Labour Government got rid of its only plausible methods of curbing the boats.

Great for Tory leader Kemi Badenoch, who in a speech tomorrow will carry out to resurrect a plan noticeably comparable to the Rwandan one.

Starmer now has nothing formidable in his locker. Literally absolutely nothing. He can offer additional millions to the French government but it will not make much, if any, distinction. French cops will still loll around on beaches, thinking of the sand castles they made as kids, as they watch migrant boats setting off for Dover.

The reality is that the French will never ever strain themselves since every migrant who leaves their coasts is one less migrant for them to stress over. It is naive to picture that they are ever going to be zealous on our behalf.

STEPHEN GLOVER: Keir Starmer is a soft man who can not comprehend the true evil Britain is facing

Nor will Sir Keir's idea of enhancing intelligence and police be definitive. As for Labour's reported objective to play with Article 8 of the Human Rights Act so as to prevent phony asylum claims, that is welcome, however even if it becomes law it is not likely to have much effect on overall numbers.

Are the PM and Home Secretary Yvette Cooper starting to panic as they understand they do not have a single policy most likely to fulfil their guarantee of 'smashing the gangs'? If they aren't desperate, they jolly well should be.

Three weeks back, Sir Keir was humiliated after he had actually applauded talks over Rwanda-style 'return centers' only minutes before his Albanian counterpart, standing a couple of feet away, dismissed any cooperation.

Maybe the Government will persuade the Kosovans or the North Macedonians to set up some sort of plan. But if it does, it will take months, if not years, and individuals will question why Sir Keir cancelled an arrangement that he is at least partly trying to revive.

I've no particular desire to toss Starmer a lifeline however, as I've recommended before, there's one possible path out of the hole he has dug for himself - though it would take huge determination and nerve for him to take it.

There are lots of unoccupied British islands off our coast and additional afield. Pick one of them. Create a camp similar to those on the Isle of Man that housed alien internees throughout the War. Build hundreds of huts - instead of putting up less tough camping tents, as ex-Reform MP Rupert Lowe has proposed.

Recruit physicians and authorities to assess claims more rapidly than takes place at present - and then return most migrants to where they originated from. The expense of establishing such a camp would be a fraction of the ₤ 4.3 billion invested in 2015 on housing migrants and asylum seekers.

Can anyone tell me why not? Few migrants would expensive kicking their heels for months in a camp, however gentle, so it would be a marvellous deterrent. Cross the Channel, and you will be our guest - on a potentially windy island instead of in a four-star hotel.

Granted, in order to stave off vexatious legal challenges we 'd most likely need to derogate from the European Court of Human Rights, which would be an action too far for our mindful Prime Minister.

But he doesn't have a better idea. In reality, he hasn't got any ideas at all that are liable to stem the growing varieties of people streaming throughout the English Channel.

Things can only get even worse - and as they do Labour will sink ever lower in public esteem. Does Sir Keir Starmer truly wish to be the signatory of his own political death warrant?

RwandaAngela RaynerLabourWes Streeting
kakoune.org

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