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  • Alda Pastor
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  • #32

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Created Feb 10, 2025 by Alda Pastor@aldapastor2596Maintainer

What Trump's Trade War Means for YOUR Investments


It's been another 'Manic Monday' for savers and financiers.

Having awakened at the start of recently to the game-changing news that an unknown Chinese start-up had actually developed a cheap expert system (AI) chatbot, they discovered over the weekend that Donald Trump actually was going to carry out his risk of launching a full-scale trade war.

The US President's choice to slap a 25 percent tariff on products imported from Canada and Mexico, and a 10 per cent tax on shipments from China, sent stock exchange into another tailspin, simply as they were recovering from recently's rout.

But whereas that sell-off was mainly restricted to AI and other innovation stocks, this time the results of a potentially protracted trade war could be much more harmful and extensive, and possibly plunge the worldwide economy - consisting of the UK - into a downturn.

And the choice to postpone the tariffs on Mexico for one month used just partial respite on worldwide markets.

So how should British investors play this extremely volatile and unpredictable situation? What are the sectors and possessions to avoid, and who or what might become winners?

In its easiest kind, a tariff is a tax imposed by one nation on products imported from another.

Crucially, the task is not paid by the foreign business exporting however by the receiving company, which pays the levy to its federal government, offering it with helpful tax profits.

President Donald Trump talking to press reporters in Washington today after Air Force One touched down at Joint Base Andrews

These might be worth approximately $250billion a year, or 0.8 per cent of US GDP, according to experts at Capital Economics.

Canada, bytes-the-dust.com Mexico and China together account for $1.3 trillion - or 42 percent - of the $3.1 trillion of products imported into the US in 2023.

Most economic experts dislike tariffs, mainly due to the fact that they cause inflation when companies pass on their increased import expenses to consumers, sending rates higher.

But Mr Trump enjoys them - he has explained tariff as 'the most lovely word in the dictionary'.

In his current election campaign, Mr Trump made clear of his strategy to enforce import taxes on neighbouring nations unless they suppressed the unlawful flow of drugs and migrants into the US.

Next in Mr Trump's sights is the European Union, where he's said tariffs will 'certainly happen' - and potentially the UK.

The US President says Britain is 'escape of line' but an offer 'can be worked out'.

Nobody must be shocked the US President has decided to shoot very first and ask concerns later.

Trade delicate companies in Europe were also struck by Mr Trump's tariffs, including German carmakers Volkswagen and BMW

Shares in European consumer products companies such as drinks huge Diageo, which makes Guinness, fell greatly amid worries of higher costs for their products

What matters now is how other nations respond.

Canada, Mexico and China have actually currently struck back in kind, triggering fears of a tit-for-tat escalation that might engulf the entire international economy if others follow fit.

Mr Trump concedes that Americans will bear some 'short-term' pain from his sweeping tariffs. 'But long term the United States has actually been ripped off by virtually every nation in the world,' he included.

Mr Trump says the tariffs enforced by former US President William McKinley in 1890 made America flourishing, introducing a 'golden age' when the US surpassed Britain as the world's greatest economy. He wishes to duplicate that formula to 'make America excellent again'.

But specialists state he risks a re-run of the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930 - a dreadful procedure presented just after the Wall Street stock market crash. It raised tariffs on a broad swathe of items imported into the US, leading to a collapse in worldwide trade and gdprhub.eu worsening the effects of the Great Depression.

'The lessons from history are clear: protectionist policies rarely provide the designated benefits,' says Nigel Green, primary executive of wealth supervisor deVere Group.

Rising costs, inflationary pressures and interfered with global supply chains - which are even more inter-connected today than they were a century ago - will affect businesses and consumers alike, he added.

'The Smoot-Hawley tariffs got worse the Great Depression by stifling international trade, and today's tariffs risk triggering the exact same devastating cycle,' Mr Green adds.

How Trump's individual crypto raises fears of 'unsafe' corruption in White House

Perhaps the finest historic guide to how Mr Trump's trade policy will affect financiers is from his first term in the White House.

'Trump's launch of tariffs in 2018 did raise earnings for America, but US business earnings took a hit that year and the S&P 500 index fell by a fifth, so markets have actually not surprisingly taken fright this time around,' says Russ Mould, director at financial investment platform AJ Bell.

The good news is that inflation didn't surge in the after-effects, which might 'relieve current monetary market fears that greater tariffs will imply greater costs and higher rates will mean higher rates of interest,' Mr Mould adds.

The factor rates didn't leap was 'since consumers and companies refused to pay them and sought out more affordable alternatives - which is precisely the Trump plan this time around', Mr Mould explains. 'American importers and foreign sellers into the US elected to take the hit on margin and did not pass on the expense impact of the tariffs.'

Simply put, companies took in the greater costs from tariffs at the cost of their revenues and rate increases.

So will it be different this time round?

'It is hard to see how an escalation of trade stress can do any excellent, to anyone, at least over the longer run,' states Inga Fechner, senior financial expert at financial investment bank ING. 'Economically speaking, escalating trade stress are a lose-lose scenario for all nations involved.'

The effect of a global trade war might be devastating if targeted economies strike back, prices rise, trade fades and development stalls or falls. In such a circumstance, interest rates might either rise, to suppress greater inflation, or fall, to enhance sagging growth.

The consensus among specialists is that tariffs will mean the cost of obtaining stays higher for longer to tame resurgent inflation, but the truth is no one truly understands.

Tariffs might likewise cause a falling oil cost - as demand from market and customers for dearer products sags - though a barrel of crude was trading greater on Monday amid fears that North American products may be disrupted, causing shortages.

Either method a significant drop in the oil price might not be adequate to save the day.

'Unless oil prices visit 80 per cent to $15 a barrel it is unlikely lower energy expenses will balance out the impacts of tariffs and existing inflation,' says Adam Kobeissi, creator of a prominent investor newsletter.

Investors are playing the 'Trump tariff trade' by switching out of dangerous assets and into traditional safe havens - a pattern professionals state is likely to continue while uncertainty persists.

Among the hardest struck are microchip and innovation stocks such as Nvidia, which fell 7 per cent, and UK-based Arm, which is off 6 percent, as monetary markets brace for retaliation from China and curbs on semiconductor sales.

Other trade-sensitive companies were also struck. Shares in German carmakers Volkswagen and BMW and durable goods companies such as beverages giant Diageo fell greatly in the middle of worries of greater expenses for their products.

But the greatest losers have been cryptocurrencies, which skyrocketed when Mr Trump won the US election but are now falling back to earth.

At $94,000, Bitcoin is down 15 per cent from its recent all-time high, while Ethereum - another major cryptocurrency - fell by more than a third in the 60 hours given that news of the Trump trade wars hit the headlines.

Crypto has taken a hit because investors think Mr Trump's tariffs will sustain inflation, which in turn might cause the US main bank, the Federal Reserve, to keep rate of interest at their present levels and even increase them. The effect tariffs may have on the course of rate of interest is uncertain. However, higher interest rates make crypto, which does not produce an income, less attractive to investors than when rates are low.

As financiers run away these extremely volatile possessions they have piled into traditionally safer bets such as gold, which is trading at a record high of $2,800 an ounce, and the dollar, which surged against major currencies yesterday.

Experts say the dollar's strength is really an advantage for the FTSE 100 due to the fact that much of the British companies in the index make a great deal of their cash in the US currency, suggesting they benefit when profits are translated into sterling.

The FTSE 100 fell the other day however by less than much of the significant indices.

It is not all doom and gloom.

'One big hope is that the tariffs do not last, while another is that the US Federal Reserve helps out with some rate of interest cuts, something for which Trump is currently calling,' says AJ Bell's Mr Mould.

Traders expect the Bank of England to cut rates this week by a quarter of a portion point to 4.5 percent, while the opportunity of three or more rate cuts later on this year have increased in the wake of the trade war shock.

Whenever stock markets wobble it is tempting to worry and sell, however holding your nerve normally pays dividends, experts state.

'History likewise reveals that volatility types opportunity,' states deVere's Mr Green.

'Those who think twice threat being caught on the incorrect side of market motions. But for those who gain from past disruptions and take definitive action, this period of volatility could provide some of the very best opportunities in years.'

Among the sectors Mr Green likes are European banks, since their shares are trading at fairly low rates and rates of interest in the eurozone are lower than elsewhere. 'Defence stocks, such as BAE Systems, are also attractive since they will provide a steady return,' he adds.

Investors should not rush to offer while the image is cloudy and can keep an eye out for potential bargains. One strategy is to invest routine monthly amounts into shares or funds instead of large lump sums. That method you lower the risk of bad timing and, when markets fall, you can purchase more shares for your cash so, as and when prices rise again, you benefit.

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