Skip to content

GitLab

  • Menu
Projects Groups Snippets
    • Loading...
  • Help
    • Help
    • Support
    • Community forum
    • Submit feedback
    • Contribute to GitLab
  • Sign in / Register
  • U unicoc
  • Project information
    • Project information
    • Activity
    • Labels
    • Members
  • Repository
    • Repository
    • Files
    • Commits
    • Branches
    • Tags
    • Contributors
    • Graph
    • Compare
  • Issues 126
    • Issues 126
    • List
    • Boards
    • Service Desk
    • Milestones
  • Merge requests 0
    • Merge requests 0
  • CI/CD
    • CI/CD
    • Pipelines
    • Jobs
    • Schedules
  • Deployments
    • Deployments
    • Environments
    • Releases
  • Monitor
    • Monitor
    • Incidents
  • Packages & Registries
    • Packages & Registries
    • Package Registry
    • Infrastructure Registry
  • Analytics
    • Analytics
    • Value stream
    • CI/CD
    • Repository
  • Wiki
    • Wiki
  • Snippets
    • Snippets
  • Activity
  • Graph
  • Create a new issue
  • Jobs
  • Commits
  • Issue Boards
Collapse sidebar
  • Adell Collier
  • unicoc
  • Issues
  • #78

Closed
Open
Created Feb 13, 2025 by Adell Collier@adell628893828Maintainer

What Trump's Trade War Means for YOUR Investments


It's been another 'Manic Monday' for savers and financiers.

Having awakened at the start of last week to the game-changing news that an unknown Chinese start-up had established a cheap expert system (AI) chatbot, they learned over the weekend that Donald Trump truly was going to bring out his hazard of launching a full-scale trade war.

The US President's decision to slap a 25 per cent tariff on goods imported from Canada and Mexico, and a ten percent tax on shipments from China, sent stock markets into another tailspin, simply as they were recovering from recently's thrashing.

But whereas that sell-off was mainly confined to AI and other technology stocks, this time the results of a possibly protracted trade war could be far more harmful and extensive, and maybe plunge the global economy - consisting of the UK - into a depression.

And the decision to delay the tariffs on Mexico for one month used only partial respite on international markets.

So how should British investors play this highly unstable and unforeseeable situation? What are the sectors and properties to avoid, and who or what might become winners?

In its most basic type, a tariff is a tax imposed by one nation on goods imported from another.

Crucially, the duty is not paid by the foreign business exporting however by the getting organization, which pays the levy to its government, providing it with helpful tax earnings.

President Donald Trump talking with reporters in Washington today after Air Force One touched down at Joint Base Andrews

These might be worth as much as $250billion a year, visualchemy.gallery or 0.8 per cent of US GDP, according to specialists at Capital Economics.

Canada, Mexico and China together account for $1.3 trillion - or 42 per cent - of the $3.1 trillion of goods imported into the US in 2023.

Most economists dislike tariffs, mainly since they trigger inflation when business pass on their increased import costs to consumers, sending out prices higher.

But Mr Trump loves them - he has actually explained tariff as 'the most lovely word in the dictionary'.

In his recent election campaign, Mr Trump made clear of his plan to impose import taxes on neighbouring nations unless they curbed the prohibited flow of drugs and migrants into the US.

Next in Mr Trump's sights is the European Union, where he's said tariffs will 'certainly take place' - and possibly the UK.

The US President says Britain is 'escape of line' however a deal 'can be exercised'.

Nobody needs to be surprised the US President has decided to shoot very first and ask concerns later.

Trade sensitive companies in Europe were likewise hit by Mr Trump's tariffs, including German carmakers Volkswagen and BMW

Shares in European durable goods companies such as drinks giant Diageo, which makes Guinness, fell greatly amidst fears of greater expenses for their items

What matters now is how other nations react.

Canada, Mexico and China have actually already retaliated in kind, triggering fears of a tit-for-tat escalation that could swallow up the whole international economy if others do the same.

Mr Trump concedes that Americans will bear some 'brief term' pain from his sweeping tariffs. 'But long term the United States has actually been ripped off by virtually every country on the planet,' he included.

Mr Trump says the tariffs imposed by previous US President William McKinley in 1890 made America flourishing, ushering in a 'golden era' when the US overtook Britain as the world's greatest economy. He wants to repeat that formula to 'make America excellent again'.

But specialists state he risks a re-run of the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930 - a dreadful step introduced just after the Wall Street stock exchange crash. It raised tariffs on a broad swathe of goods imported into the US, leading to a collapse in international trade and exacerbating the impacts of the Great Depression.

'The lessons from history are clear: protectionist policies seldom deliver the designated advantages,' says Nigel Green, primary executive of wealth supervisor deVere Group.

Rising expenses, inflationary pressures and interrupted international supply chains - which are far more inter-connected today than they were a century ago - will affect businesses and consumers alike, morphomics.science he added.

'The Smoot-Hawley tariffs aggravated the Great Depression by suppressing global trade, and today's tariffs run the risk of setting off the same damaging cycle,' Mr Green adds.

How Trump's personal crypto raises fears of 'dangerous' corruption in White House

Perhaps the very best historic guide to how Mr Trump's trade policy will impact financiers is from his very first term in the White House.

'Trump's launch of tariffs in 2018 did raise incomes for America, but US corporate earnings took a hit that year and the S&P 500 index fell by a 5th, so markets have actually understandably taken shock this time around,' states Russ Mould, director at investment platform AJ Bell.

The bright side is that inflation didn't increase in the after-effects, which might 'assuage present monetary market fears that greater tariffs will indicate greater prices and higher costs will mean higher interest rates,' Mr Mould adds.

The factor costs didn't jump was 'because customers and business declined to pay them and looked for more affordable options - which is exactly the Trump plan this time around', Mr Mould explains. 'American importers and foreign sellers into the US elected to take the hit on margin and did not hand down the cost effect of the tariffs.'

To put it simply, companies took in the higher expenses from tariffs at the expenditure of their profits and sparing customers price increases.

So will it be different this time round?

'It is difficult to see how an escalation of trade stress can do any great, to anybody, at least over the longer run,' states Inga Fechner, senior economist at investment bank ING. 'Economically speaking, escalating trade stress are a lose-lose circumstance for all nations involved.'

The impact of a worldwide trade war might be ravaging if targeted economies strike back, prices rise, trade fades and development stalls or falls. In such a scenario, interest rates might either increase, to suppress higher inflation, or fall, to boost drooping development.

The agreement amongst professionals is that tariffs will mean the cost of obtaining stays greater for longer to tame resurgent inflation, but the truth is no one truly knows.

Tariffs may also cause a falling oil cost - as need from market and consumers for dearer products sags - though a barrel of crude was trading greater on Monday amid worries that North American products might be interrupted, causing lacks.

In any case a dramatic drop in the oil cost might not be enough to conserve the day.

'Unless oil costs come by 80 percent to $15 a barrel it is unlikely lower energy expenses will offset the results of tariffs and existing inflation,' states Adam Kobeissi, creator of an influential financier newsletter.

Investors are playing the 'Trump tariff trade' by switching out of dangerous possessions and into conventional safe sanctuaries - a trend professionals state is likely to continue while continues.

Among the hardest hit are microchip and innovation stocks such as Nvidia, which fell 7 per cent, and UK-based Arm, which is off 6 percent, as financial markets brace for retaliation from China and asteroidsathome.net curbs on semiconductor sales.

Other trade-sensitive companies were likewise hit. Shares in German carmakers Volkswagen and BMW and durable goods companies such as drinks giant Diageo fell dramatically amid worries of higher costs for their products.

But the biggest losers have been cryptocurrencies, which soared when Mr Trump won the US election however are now falling back to earth.

At $94,000, Bitcoin is down 15 per cent from its recent all-time high, while Ethereum - another significant cryptocurrency - fell by more than a third in the 60 hours considering that news of the Trump trade wars struck the headings.

Crypto has taken a hit since financiers believe Mr Trump's tariffs will sustain inflation, which in turn may trigger the US main bank, the Federal Reserve, to keep rate of interest at their present levels or even increase them. The effect tariffs may have on the course of rates of interest is uncertain. However, greater rate of interest make crypto, which does not produce an earnings, less appealing to financiers than when rates are low.

As financiers run away these extremely volatile assets they have stacked into typically more secure bets such as gold, which is trading at a record high of $2,800 an ounce, and the dollar, which surged against significant currencies yesterday.

Experts say the dollar's strength is actually a benefit for the FTSE 100 due to the fact that many of the British companies in the index make a great deal of their money in the US currency, meaning they benefit when profits are translated into sterling.

The FTSE 100 fell yesterday but by less than many of the major indices.

It is not all doom and gloom.

'One big hope is that the tariffs do not last, while another is that the US Federal Reserve assists out with some interest rate cuts, something for which Trump is currently calling,' states AJ Bell's Mr Mould.

Traders anticipate the Bank of England to cut rates this week by a quarter of a portion indicate 4.5 per cent, while the opportunity of 3 or more rate cuts later this year have risen in the wake of the trade war shock.

Whenever stock markets wobble it is appealing to panic and sell, but holding your nerve typically pays dividends, experts state.

'History also reveals that volatility types chance,' says deVere's Mr Green.

'Those who are reluctant risk being captured on the wrong side of market motions. But for those who gain from previous interruptions and take decisive action, this duration of volatility might present a few of the best opportunities in years.'

Among the sectors Mr Green likes are European banks, since their shares are trading at fairly low costs and interest rates in the eurozone are lower than in other places. 'Defence stocks, such as BAE Systems, are also appealing because they will give a stable return,' he includes.

Investors ought to not rush to sell while the photo is cloudy and can keep an eye out for potential bargains. One strategy is to invest routine monthly amounts into shares or funds rather than large swelling amounts. That method you decrease the threat of bad timing and, when markets fall, you can buy more shares for your money so, as and when prices increase again, you benefit.

Assignee
Assign to
Time tracking